With the Paris 2024 Olympic games two years away, the debate and controversy regarding who will win the gold, silver, and bronze medals for the next Summer Olympics is increasing. The United States of America has reigned in the Olympics over the previous two decades, ranking at the top in the overall tally of medals and gold medals at 5 out of the last 6 summer Olympics. However, some aspiring teams may well be able to challenge Team USA and unseat them in Paris.
Here is an in-depth analysis of the likely medal leaders and a predicted top 10 medal table for the Paris 2024 Games:
Does this mean that Team USA is still the favorite for gold and other medals at the games?
Analysts expect the United States to remain on the top of the medal tally in Paris, but the lead gap could be reduced. However, there are some learning from Tokyo 2020 where the American Olympic sport garnered 113 medals, and 39 golds while China got only 88 medals Even in terms of funding and talent across all sports such as swimming, athletics, basketball, and beach volleyball, American Olympic sport is well endowed. It is for this reason, without any miracles that work against the team, that Team USA should be in a position to clinch between 120-130 medals with 40-45 of them being gold in Paris 2024. It is difficult to argue with their assortment and depth in such a diverse range of athletics, which allows them to be extremely competitive in the race to the top.
China Chasing Closely
The biggest threat to Team USA in the Paris Olympics is undoubtedly China, which had 51 gold medals came second behind the US during Beijing 2008, and performed well in the Tokyo Olympics. An Olympic powerhouse now in events like diving, gymnastics, weightlifting, table tennis, and badminton, China is expected to clinch between 35 to 50 gold and over 100 total medals in Paris. They have spent a lot on Olympic success and the emergence of new powers within the last twenty years has been phenomenal. It is quite evident that any position other than second will be seen as a letdown by China when the next Olympics come around in 2024.
HOSTS FRANCE OPTIMISTIC FOR A RECORD NUMBER OF MEDALS
France, the hosts in 2024, will do everything in their power to put up their best performance at the games. French athletes performed exceptionally well in the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games with some stunning wins in judo, fencing, and handball to finish 8th overall with 33 medals out of which 10 were golds. If France’s athletes were to deliver their best performance on home soil as they have been doing for the last decade, then the country could easily break into the top 5 of the tallying nations. Even the best possible condition of around 40 medals and 15+ gold medals could just get them there. I believe the home crowd supporting the French athletes at all events will be an advantage.
Japan and Australia are two countries that are outside medal chances
Japan and Australia which are both in the Paris Olympic Games have a straight Olympic pipeline that has the potential to fight for the top 5 positions in the coming Games. Japan defied all odds and expectations right through to the August event in Tokyo where they clinched 58 medals out of which 27 were gold medals in sports such as judo, swimming, baseball, and skateboarding. It would be challenging for the French to keep those sorts of performances in Paris if they do not have the home-country advantage, but they should be able to clinch 20+ golds and 45-50 total medals. For Sydney, they saw 48 medals won by Australia in Tokyo showcased a tremendous performance from athletes especially the swimmers such as Ariarne Titmus indicating the country’s reliability as an Olympic force. Around 40+ medals and approximately 15 of them being gold can also be considered possible for the Australians in the Paris 2024 Olympics.
Great Britain: can they recreate the performances seen in Rio and Tokyo?
Mr. Kamsky stated Russia & Germany lead the chasing pack
There are two other countries that have a rich history of Olympic medal performances which are near the top five medal rankings but could cause upsets in Paris 2024. Russia will participate as ROC – Russian Olympic Committee because it was banned for doping, but still it is the same team that won 71 medals including 20 golds in Tokyo 2020 to win the 5th position. Sporting events such as figure skating, gymnastics, wrestling, and athletic events are strong disciplines in the Russian sports team, and it is equally possible to get a score of seventy-plus medals including more than twenty gold medals in Paris. For Germany, won 37 medals in Tokyo, combined with the world’s number one ranking in cycling, gymnastics, and other disciplines, it is possible to increase the result of Rio 2016 and set a goal to win at least 6th place in Paris list with 30+ medals and 18-20 golds.
Which Team(s) Will Prove The Cinderella Group/Team?
Apart from the countries expected to dominate in terms of medal tally, there are a few countries that have aspirations of improving their medal tally compared to Paris 24 and probably cause an upset on the expected result. Tokyo 2020 was the best Olympics for the Netherlands, which won 36 medals and 10 golds and became recognizable in cycling, rowing, and athletics. If those sports can provide more success and swimming returns, the Dutch have a long shot at 55 medals & 25 golds in Paris.
Hungary is another country with good movement as they reached 20 medals and 7 gold in Tokyo 2020 majorly due to their performance in swimming and fencing. Sustaining that standard in a non-home fixture will shoot them to the top 10 at the Parc des Princes. Finally, South Korea is optimistic that their success in Tokyo 2020 where they won 11 golds and 19 total medals will move them up to the twelfth place. Such a repeat would be the South Korean best-ever overseas Olympic display.
Therefore, summing up, Team USA will still be the clear favorite to dominate in Paris 2024 and win 40-45 golds but will have their most difficult time in over a decade for this against a rising Chinese team currently put at around 30-35 golds in Paris and tough challenges expected from the Japanese, Australians, French, Russians, and the British. Even some of the nations that entered the top 10 only recently such as the Netherlands, Hungary, and South Korea could significantly affect the current predicted standings with another round of good performances in France too. At the moment, there is yet too much competition to be able to determine who will stand at the top in the medal tally during the Paris 2024 Olympics!
